Show Posts
1
Referrals/Free iPods Forum / 12DailyPro
« on: September 15, 2005, 11:01:08 PM »
12daily Pro will not survive the year.
Let me back this up. Firstly, if you don't know how these schemes work, try reading the following excellent article:
http://www.my-online-income-streams.com/pa...eme-scams.shtml
If you are still saying "So what? I know 12DP is different because it has been paying everyone out", you didn't read the article :-). Check out the part that starts "Common 'This is not a scam!' arguments by (temporarily) happy members 1 - 'They have paid me'".
Make sure you read the second part as well:
http://www.my-online-income-streams.com/pa...e-scams-2.shtml
Whatever long term investments 12DP claim to be making, the truth is that the only way they can be funding these very short term 144% returns they are making right now is by paying out existing members with new members' money. But so far, so good; everyone has been paid, right?
Of course. Lots of "happy happy I got paid by 12DP!" posts all over the internet are an essential part of the highly professional marketing strategy. By my estimates the number of members has been growing at between 2% a day and 4% a day over the last few months, enough to keep everyone happy.
However, as is inevitable, these growth rates have to go down sometime. Even at the minimum growth rate required to sustain them - just over 2% a day[1] - they need to double in size every month[2]. That can't go on forever; there are only so many people prepared to invest in these schemes[3]!
Taking 12PD at their word, quoting from "Charis", their founder, in the 12DP Sept 12 newsletter, "We have now surpassed 35,000 members and continue to add over 400 members per day", their growth rate has already slowed down to only just over 1% per day, not enough to survive[4].
Even if the numbers do pick up, think about what is going to happen at Christmas. People will want to buy presents. They’ll want to take a break from all the paid surfing, too, or put off starting if they’re new, until after the festive season. So even if income levels do pick up, they’ll take a hit in December.
By this time it will be huge. Doubling each month gets us to over a quarter of a million people by December. If the money stops streaming in, even for a few weeks, it will be impossible to make up the shortfall. People won’t get paid, their angry posts will be a rash all over the Internet, and the bubble will have burst...
Although I started my post with the statement "12daily Pro will not survive the year", stated as absolute fact, the truth is I think they'll last nowhere near that long. As I detailed, their growth rate has dropped to less than 2% per month; this means they'll be losing money now, and they'll certainly know it.
Add to that the fact that the servers are getting overloaded (see the "Tecnical Issues" thread on their forum: http://mylifeclicks.net/smf/index.php?board=6.0) they'll have a decision to make: either invest a whole load of money to double their IT resource (and that only buys them another month), or let it fold now.
A close call, but if pressed I'd say I think they'll not put the money in and it'll start to slide. Increasing technical problems will cause members to get frustrated, hence slowing recruitment, i.e. money drying up and payments being delayed, all within days. Then total collapse by the end of this month.
Alternatively they spend a huge amount doubling their IT resources then struggle into October, when unless they can start recruiting well over 1,000 new members every day[5] they'll run out of cash before the next IT meltdown a couple of weeks later...
Keep well away. If you've already put money into it, let your upgrades lapse, take your profit, and watch the chaos ensue from the sidelines.
Footnotes:
[1] They pay out 144% after 12 days, plus 7 working days, plus an average of about 3 weekend days or holidays. That's 22 days. If the number of members grows by 2.3% per day, assuming the spread of how much people are paying in stays about the same, they’ll be pulling in about 165% as much money after 22 days (1.023^22=c.1.65), just enough for this 144%, the 12% referral fee paid most of the time, staff costs and other expenses.
[2] Average month about 30.5 days; 1.023^30.5=c.2.
[3] Doubling every month, if they have 35,000 members today, they’ll need over 140 million by this time next year, and then hit over 9 billion six months after that (March 2007), which is half as many people again than there are on earth!
[4] 400 is about 1.14% of 35,000; after 22 days that only yields about 128%. Expect payments to start being delayed soon!
[5] 35,000 members on Sept 12, plus the 2.3% daily growth necessary to survive, takes us to c.54,000 members on Oct 1, 2.3% of which yields a minimum required recruitment level of 1240 members a day.
Let me back this up. Firstly, if you don't know how these schemes work, try reading the following excellent article:
http://www.my-online-income-streams.com/pa...eme-scams.shtml
If you are still saying "So what? I know 12DP is different because it has been paying everyone out", you didn't read the article :-). Check out the part that starts "Common 'This is not a scam!' arguments by (temporarily) happy members 1 - 'They have paid me'".
Make sure you read the second part as well:
http://www.my-online-income-streams.com/pa...e-scams-2.shtml
Whatever long term investments 12DP claim to be making, the truth is that the only way they can be funding these very short term 144% returns they are making right now is by paying out existing members with new members' money. But so far, so good; everyone has been paid, right?
Of course. Lots of "happy happy I got paid by 12DP!" posts all over the internet are an essential part of the highly professional marketing strategy. By my estimates the number of members has been growing at between 2% a day and 4% a day over the last few months, enough to keep everyone happy.
However, as is inevitable, these growth rates have to go down sometime. Even at the minimum growth rate required to sustain them - just over 2% a day[1] - they need to double in size every month[2]. That can't go on forever; there are only so many people prepared to invest in these schemes[3]!
Taking 12PD at their word, quoting from "Charis", their founder, in the 12DP Sept 12 newsletter, "We have now surpassed 35,000 members and continue to add over 400 members per day", their growth rate has already slowed down to only just over 1% per day, not enough to survive[4].
Even if the numbers do pick up, think about what is going to happen at Christmas. People will want to buy presents. They’ll want to take a break from all the paid surfing, too, or put off starting if they’re new, until after the festive season. So even if income levels do pick up, they’ll take a hit in December.
By this time it will be huge. Doubling each month gets us to over a quarter of a million people by December. If the money stops streaming in, even for a few weeks, it will be impossible to make up the shortfall. People won’t get paid, their angry posts will be a rash all over the Internet, and the bubble will have burst...
Although I started my post with the statement "12daily Pro will not survive the year", stated as absolute fact, the truth is I think they'll last nowhere near that long. As I detailed, their growth rate has dropped to less than 2% per month; this means they'll be losing money now, and they'll certainly know it.
Add to that the fact that the servers are getting overloaded (see the "Tecnical Issues" thread on their forum: http://mylifeclicks.net/smf/index.php?board=6.0) they'll have a decision to make: either invest a whole load of money to double their IT resource (and that only buys them another month), or let it fold now.
A close call, but if pressed I'd say I think they'll not put the money in and it'll start to slide. Increasing technical problems will cause members to get frustrated, hence slowing recruitment, i.e. money drying up and payments being delayed, all within days. Then total collapse by the end of this month.
Alternatively they spend a huge amount doubling their IT resources then struggle into October, when unless they can start recruiting well over 1,000 new members every day[5] they'll run out of cash before the next IT meltdown a couple of weeks later...
Keep well away. If you've already put money into it, let your upgrades lapse, take your profit, and watch the chaos ensue from the sidelines.
Footnotes:
[1] They pay out 144% after 12 days, plus 7 working days, plus an average of about 3 weekend days or holidays. That's 22 days. If the number of members grows by 2.3% per day, assuming the spread of how much people are paying in stays about the same, they’ll be pulling in about 165% as much money after 22 days (1.023^22=c.1.65), just enough for this 144%, the 12% referral fee paid most of the time, staff costs and other expenses.
[2] Average month about 30.5 days; 1.023^30.5=c.2.
[3] Doubling every month, if they have 35,000 members today, they’ll need over 140 million by this time next year, and then hit over 9 billion six months after that (March 2007), which is half as many people again than there are on earth!
[4] 400 is about 1.14% of 35,000; after 22 days that only yields about 128%. Expect payments to start being delayed soon!
[5] 35,000 members on Sept 12, plus the 2.3% daily growth necessary to survive, takes us to c.54,000 members on Oct 1, 2.3% of which yields a minimum required recruitment level of 1240 members a day.